Forex Forecasting

Basic Forex forecast methods: Technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
This article provides insight into the two major methods of analysis used to forecast the behavior of the Forex market. Technical analysis and fundamental analysis differ greatly, but both can be useful forecast tools for the Forex trader. They have the same goal - to predict a price or movement. The technician studies the effect while the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many successful traders combine a mixture of both approaches for superior results.

Technical analysis
Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action. Technical analysis is concerned with what has actually happened in the market, rather than what should happen and takes into account the price of instruments and the volume of trading, and creates charts from that data to use as the primary tool. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments simultaneously.

Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:

1. Market action discounts everything! This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example, supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. However, the pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.

2. Prices move in trends Technical analysis is used to identify patterns of market behavior that have long been recognized as significant. For many given patterns there is a high probability that they will produce the expected results. Also, there are recognized patterns that repeat themselves on a consistent basis.

3. History repeats itself Forex chart patterns have been recognized and categorized for over 100 years and the manner in which many patterns are repeated leads to the conclusion that human psychology changes little over time.

Forex charts are based on market action involving price. There are five categories in Forex technical analysis theory:
* Indicators (oscillators, e.g.: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
* Number theory (Fibonacci numbers, Gann numbers)
* Waves (Elliott wave theory)
* Gaps (high-low, open-closing)
* Trends (following moving average).

Some major technical analysis tools are described below:
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI measures the ratio of up-moves to down-moves and normalizes the calculation so that the index is expressed in a range of 0-100. If the RSI is 70 or greater, then the instrument is assumed to be overbought (a situation in which prices have risen more than market expectations). An RSI of 30 or less is taken as a signal that the instrument may be oversold (a situation in which prices have fallen more than the market expectations).

Stochastic oscillator:
This is used to indicate overbought/oversold conditions on a scale of 0-100%. The indicator is based on the observation that in a strong up trend, period closing prices tend to concentrate in the higher part of the period's range. Conversely, as prices fall in a strong down trend, closing prices tend to be near to the extreme low of the period range. Stochastic calculations produce two lines, %K and %D that are used to indicate overbought/oversold areas of a chart. Divergence between the stochastic lines and the price action of the underlying instrument gives a powerful trading signal.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD):
This indicator involves plotting two momentum lines. The MACD line is the difference between two exponential moving averages and the signal or trigger line, which is an exponential moving average of the difference. If the MACD and trigger lines cross, then this is taken as a signal that a change in the trend is likely.

Number theory:
Fibonacci numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34...) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number to the next larger number is 62%, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of 62%, which is 38%, is also used as a Fibonacci retracement number.

Gann numbers:
W.D. Gann was a stock and a commodity trader working in the '50s who reputedly made over $50 million in the markets. He made his fortune using methods that he developed for trading instruments based on relationships between price movement and time, known as time/price equivalents. There is no easy explanation for Gann's methods, but in essence he used angles in charts to determine support and resistance areas and predict the times of future trend changes. He also used lines in charts to predict support and resistance areas.

Waves
Elliott wave theory: The Elliott wave theory is an approach to market analysis that is based on repetitive wave patterns and the Fibonacci number sequence. An ideal Elliott wave patterns shows a five-wave advance followed by a three-wave decline.

Gaps
Gaps are spaces left on the bar chart where no trading has taken place. An up gap is formed when the lowest price on a trading day is higher than the highest high of the previous day. A down gap is formed when the highest price of the day is lower than the lowest price of the prior day. An up gap is usually a sign of market strength, while a down gap is a sign of market weakness. A breakaway gap is a price gap that forms on the completion of an important price pattern. It usually signals the beginning of an important price move. A runaway gap is a price gap that usually occurs around the mid-point of an important market trend. For that reason, it is also called a measuring gap. An exhaustion gap is a price gap that occurs at the end of an important trend and signals that the trend is ending.

Trends
A trend refers to the direction of prices. Rising peaks and troughs constitute an up trend; falling peaks and troughs constitute a downtrend that determines the steepness of the current trend. The breaking of a trend line usually signals a trend reversal. Horizontal peaks and troughs characterize a trading range.

Moving averages are used to smooth price information in order to confirm trends and support and resistance levels. They are also useful in deciding on a trading strategy, particularly in futures trading or a market with a strong up or down trend.

The most common technical tools:
Coppock Curve is an investment tool used in technical analysis for predicting bear market lows.

DMI (Directional Movement Indicator) is a popular technical indicator used to determine whether or not a currency pair is trending.

Unlike the fundamental analyst, the technical analyst is not much concerned with any of the "bigger picture" factors affecting the market, but concentrates on the activity of that instrument's market.

Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other relevant factors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underlies the financial instrument. In practice, many market players use technical analysis in conjunction with fundamental analysis to determine their trading strategy. One major advantage of technical analysis is that experienced analysts can follow many markets and market instruments, whereas the fundamental analyst needs to know a particular market intimately. Fundamental analysis focuses on what ought to happen in a market. Factors involved in price analysis: Supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and government policy.

The fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement, while the technician studies the effect. Fundamental analysis is a macro or strategic assessment of where a currency should be trading based on any criteria but the movement of the currency's price itself. These criteria often include the economic condition of the country that the currency represents, monetary policy, and other "fundamental" elements.

Many profitable trades are made moments prior to or shortly after major economic announcements.

Forex(FX) Trading Strategy

A forex trading strategy can provide profit for a skilled speculator. A FX trading strategy is, simply put, a method for using foreign exchange rates of currency from various countries to buy one country’s currency when it is undervalued, and exchange it for another country’s currency with it is of normal or higher value, with the difference being profit.

A common forex trading strategy could involve US dollars and the Euro, the official currency of most European countries. To use a simple example of a forex trading strategy, a speculator would buy Euros when they were undervalued; let’s say two Euros equaled one US dollar. This would be unusual because normally the two currencies are almost equal.

By spending one hundred US dollars to buy two hundred Euros a speculator would be able to buy more goods in Germany, France or other European countries. When the market changed and became more even, the speculator would have twice as many goods as he normally would have, and would be able to exchange those goods for US dollars once again.

The difference would be profit. This is a very simple explanation of a forex trading strategy, but gives the basics to the new speculator.Of course, when coming up with a forex trading strategy the trader should only use money that he or she can afford to loose. This is speculation, as opposed to investment. The chances for profit are real, and could come quick but if the market turns the opposite way than expected the trader could actually loose money.

A forex trading strategy can reap large profits, but if anyone tells you that all trades will result in profit, they haven’t studied the market as well as they should have and they are not correct. Still having a sound forex trading strategy for a competent businessman can be a profitable venture. It requires study of the markets, which takes time and is usually best accomplished by reading financial newsletters and using tools available on the Internet.

Getting the advice of a professional forex trading strategy specialist can also be a sound choice. Professionals have the time, education and skills and can generally help a trader come up with a forex trading strategy that will result in profit more often than one could do without their help.The most sound forex trading strategy options are generally used by large multinational corporations who are often able to make steady profits.

Watching what large corporations do who are involved in forex trading, looking for patterns they may have set, can help a trader to get the benefit of the very expensive expertise used by these large companies. Making watching of the large traders a part of a person’s education is definitely a good place to start a forex trading education. Identifying the state of the market, determining the time frame you are working in, and the currencies that have fluctuation and getting the advice of professionals through self study can be the wisest forex trading strategy option available.

How to Trade Forex

How to Trade Forex

STEP 1:

The step 1 defines certain concepts and terms of Forex Trading-

Quotes are a vital part of the foreign exchange trading, as Forex trading is done in terms of quotes. Therefore, comprehending these quotes is the first important step.

Firstly, in a Forex quote, the currency listed first is known as the Base currency. For example, we have EUR/USD. Here, EUR is the Base currency.
Secondly, the base currency has always the value 1. In other words, the rate of other currency is calculated against 1 pt of the Base currency. For example, we have EUR/USD where EUR is the Base currency. Then 1 EUR = 1.2323 USD or the value of one currency against the other in the pair.
Thirdly, when dealing in terms of quotes, prices are expressed in terms of Pips. Pips can be defined as “percentage in points” and are mostly the fourth decimal point i.e. 1/100th of 1%.

Also used while trading through quotes, are two significant terms known as Bid and Ask. These two terms are responsible for making trading quote, a two-sided quote.
Bid can be defined as ''The price at which the base currency is sold concurrently buying the counter currency. Ask can be defined as “The price at which the base currency can be bought concurrently selling the counter currency''

STEP 2:

Step 2 illustrates the other key features of Forex trading which are namely, the leverage and the Margin. These two are immensely important in attracting the interest of the traders as they enhance the trading power of the investors.

The leverage is the ratio of the deposited amount to the amount that can be traded. Leverage enables the investors to deposit a small amount of money but still trade for a much larger amount. This way, investors can trade easily, utilizing less money to deal.

Margin, therefore, is the minimum amount required to be deposited before an investor starts trading. This can also be known as the initial amount with which the Forex trading account can be opened.

A detailed Example below illustrates exactly how Forex trading is done-
Supposing the current bid/ask price for EUR/USD is going by the rate of 1.5027/30, giving you the option to buy 1 euro with 1.5030 US dollars or sell 1 Euro for 1.5027 US dollars. Now, if you feel that the Euro is underrated against the US dollar, you would opt on buying Euros, selling your dollars at the same time. So you buy 100,000 euros by paying 150,300 dollars. You can then start analyzing the market, waiting for the exchange rates to rise.
As predicted, the rates begin to rise and then you decide a favorable rate at which you plan to sell your Euros to get a hefty profit. Supposing the Euro rises to 1.5090/93. Now, to realize your profits, you sell 100,000 euros at the current rate of 1.5090, and receive $150,900.
You bought 100k Euros at 1.5030, paying $150,300. You sold 100k Euros at 1.5090, receiving $150900. That's a difference of $600 or in other words, you successfully earned a profit of $600.
Return on Investment = $600

Always learn a lesson from the Forex Indicators, keep a watch, think long term and then take a step.

STEP 3:
MarketForex does e-trading using high end MarketForex softwares. Easily accessible and user friendly, they have a simple operating process. For instance, the currency pair to be bought or sold can simply be dealt with, by clicking on the sell or the buy key, placed in front of that currency.
After the deal to be done is selected, a quote is then displayed by the software, making it easier for the user to keep track of the records. Also, MarketForex software provides some attractive powerful features such as account details of the holder, like balance, leverage and margins, along with stop/limit orders.
The trader also has the option of selecting various other currency pairs for trading purposes. Before investing always analyse the forex market with various types of forex analysis.

What is Forex ?

The Foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest financial market in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. The average daily trade in the global forex and related markets currently is over US$ 3 trillion.[1] Retail traders (individuals) are a small fraction of this market and may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks, and are subject to forex The foreign exchange market is unique because of* Its trading volumes,* The extreme liquidity of the market,* The large number of, and variety traders in the market,* Its geographical dispersion,* Its long trading hours: 24 hours a day (except on weekends),* The variety of factors that affect exchange rates.* The low margins of profit compared with other markets of fixed income (but profits can be high due to very large trading volumes)According to the BIS ( Bank of International settlement), average daily turnover in traditional foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3,210 billion. Daily averages in April for different years, in billions of US dollars, are presented on the chart below:This $3.21 trillion in global foreign exchange market "traditional" turnover was broken down as follows:* $1,005 billion in spot transactions* $362 billion in outright forwards* $1,714 billion in forex swaps* $129 billion estimated gaps in reportingIn addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives.

Rules To Stop Losing Money

20 Rules To Stop Losing Money

1. Don't trust others opinions -It's your money at stake, not theirs. Do your own analysis, regardless of the information source.
2. Don't believe in a company - Trading is not investment. Remember the numbers and forget the press releases. Leave the American Dream to Peter Lynch.
3. Don't break your rules - You made them for tough situations, just like the one you're probably in right now.
4. Don't try to get even - Trading is never a game of catch-up. Every position must stand on its merits. Take your loss with composure, and take the next trade with absolute discipline.
5. Don't trade over your head - If your last name isn't Buffett or Cramer, don't trade like them. Concentrate on playing the game well, and don't worry about making money.
6. Don't seek the Holy Grail - There is no secret trading formula, other than solid risk management. So stop looking for it.
7. Don't forget your discipline - Learning the basics is easy. Most traders fail due to a lack of discipline, not a lack of knowledge.
8. Don't chase the crowd - Listen to the beat of your own drummer. By the time the crowd acts, you're probably too late…or too early.
9. Don't trade the obvious - The prettiest patterns set up the most painful losses. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
10. Don't ignore the warning signs - Big losses rarely come without warning. Don't wait for a lifeboat to abandon a sinking ship.
11. Don't count your chickens - Profits aren't booked until the trade is closed. The market gives and the market takes away with great fury.
12. Don't forget the plan - Remember the reasons you took the trade in the first place, and don't get blinded by volatility.
13. Don't have a paycheck mentality - You don't deserve anything for all of your hard work. The market only pays off when you're right, and your timing is really, really good.
14. Don't join a group - Trading is not a team sport. Avoid stock boards, chatrooms and financial TV. You want the truth, not blind support from others with your point of view.
15. Don't ignore your intuition - Respect the little voice that tells you what to do, and what to avoid. That's the voice of the winner trying to get into your thick head.
16. Don't hate losing - Expect to win and lose with great regularity. Expect the losing to teach you more about winning, than the winning itself.
17. Don't fall into the complexity trap - A well-trained eye is more effective than a stack of indicators. Common sense is more valuable than a backtested system.
18. Don't confuse execution with opportunity - Overpriced software won't help you trade like a pro. Pretty colors and flashing lights make you a faster trader, not a better one.
19. Don't project your personal life - Trading gives you the perfect opportunity to discover just how screwed up your life really is. Get your own house in order before playing the markets.
20. Don't think its entertainment - Trading should be boring most of the time, just like the real job you have right now